Rahul Sharma's AP Govt Blog

Looking Ahead to 2018 12 House Republicans and 2 senators have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018.  However, only 3 House Democrats and 0 Democratic senators  have announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018.  These retirements are revealing how members of Congress currently view the national political environment; they think there’s a real possibility of a Democratic wave. Some factors behind these decisions to not run for reelection include  President Donald Trump’s  poor approval rating,    sweeping Democratic victories  in Virginia’s recent elections, and t he national political environment.  The elections in "safe red districts" might be more difficult due to the competition amongst Republicans and maybe even Democrats to get those seats, and the national political environment/sweeping Democratic wave.  Open seats are more likely to flip to the other party than are seats where an incum...

Media Coverage of Trump Three observations found about media outlets with a right leaning audience is cited fewer types of sources in their reporting, offered more positive and fewer negative evaluations of President Donald Trump and his administration, and had reporters who were less likely to challenge something the president said than outlets whose audience leans to the left or those with a more evenly distributed audience. Right-leaning sources used fewer sources and focused on the positive aspects of Trump. The left did the complete opposite. Left-leaning outlets are 72% more likely to show negative coverage of Trump. Left leaning and right leaning outlets refuted something said by Trump 15% and 2% of the time, respectively. The five topics that accounted for most of the media coverage about Trump are stories about the president’s political skills (17%), immigration (14%), presidential appointments and nominations (13%), U.S.-Russia relations (13%), a...

When the House of Representatives passed its long-awaited tax overhaul this month, General Electric Co. had a potentially big problem: One part of the bill could cost the conglomerate more than $1 billion in new taxes if it becomes law. GE lobbyists scrambled and won an alternative in the Senate’s version of the tax bill preserving the company’s ability to use those losses when calculating its tax liability. Foreign airlines want a provision included in the Senate bill that would require foreign airlines to pay taxes on income earned on U.S. flights in some cases. Delta Air Lines is lobbying to keep the new tax in the final bill, arguing that it could raise $200 million over a decade. After the bill was debated and voted on in the Senate, the Senate bill passed the committee, and it included language that explicitly permits companies to use their qualified deficits to offset overseas profits. The Senate version also included language that would prev...

The Senate tax plan may come down to Lisa Murkowski. But what does she want? Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and  Sen. Susan Collins of Maine are eyed as potential pitfalls to passing the bill. Lisa Murkowski supports a  stabilization measure.  She told  Roll Call  she would consider voting for the bill if the Senate also passed a bipartisan Obamacare stabilization bill. In response, Republicans added  a provision that could allow oil drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Natural Refuge to try to win over Murkowski.  It has been a long-held dream of Alaska politicians for the revenue it would bring to the state. Murkowski would support the bill with this position because it would be a major victory for her. Murkowski supports Obamacare because Obamacare has worked in her state.  Alaska, the state with the most expensive health care, has seen its uninsured rate  fall  from 18.9 percent to 11.7 percent under the health care law....

A  health care bill  that failed to pass, a  primary election  in Alabama, and a  spat  between the president and sports players  are being covered by major outlets at the same time as Hurricane Maria. Hurricane Maria & Puerto Rico are both mentioned in fewer than 1000 sentences a day, and the hurricanes that hit the mainland US are mentioned in 2000 to 4000 sentences a day. Hurricane Maria & Puerto Rico also get about half the TV coverage that the hurricanes that hit the mainland US did. BBC and CNN mentioned Hurricane Maria the most.  One potential reason for Puerto Rico being treated differently by the media is  Puerto Rico’s status as a territory. More people get their news from TV, and if it is not on TV, many people will not know about it. If the people are not aware, then they will not push the government to do something about Puerto Rico. People will be more worried about the hurricanes that hit the US....

Revolving Door: About half of retiring senators and a third of retiring House members register as lobbyists  7th period         Members of the Senate are more likely to become lobbyists with 87% of retiring Senators becoming lobbyists, compared to the 78% of retiring House Representatives becoming lobbyists.  Congressmen were less likely to become lobbyists in the 1970s and 1980s because  the lobbying industry was not nearly as big then. The real growth of lucrative Washington lobbying started in the 1990s  This research likely underestimate the revolving door due to many  members preferring to not  register , but still do  work that looks very much like lobbying.  I think committee chairmen are more likely to become lobbyists because of the connections and valuable information they have.  The author mentions that registration requirements were "looser" back in the day, meaning that they are stricter now. These strict...

Campaigning doesn't work - general election study    7th period The outreach activity by political campaigns essentially has no impact on voters’ choice of candidate in general elections. While having no impact, campaigns can still make an impact on voters.  Broockman and Kalla studied the 2015 primary and the 2016 election and found that -1.9% of people were actually persuaded by campaign activities close to the election. Actions close to elections are useless, whereas actions months before the election have a legitimate chance of changing someone's mind. Campaign activities have a greater potential to affect primary elections, but not general elections. Broockman and Kalla found that canvassing can boost turnout, primary election persuasion, and persuasion in special elections. From the given data, groups should put more effort into boosting turnout at the end of a race rather than persuading voters earlier on.  Two statewide cases wh...