Rahul Sharma's AP Govt Blog 2.4

Looking Ahead to 2018
12 House Republicans and 2 senators have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018. However, only 3 House Democrats and 0 Democratic senators have announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018. These retirements are revealing how members of Congress currently view the national political environment; they think there’s a real possibility of a Democratic wave.
Some factors behind these decisions to not run for reelection include President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating,  sweeping Democratic victories in Virginia’s recent elections, and the national political environment. The elections in "safe red districts" might be more difficult due to the competition amongst Republicans and maybe even Democrats to get those seats, and the national political environment/sweeping Democratic wave. 
Open seats are more likely to flip to the other party than are seats where an incumbent is running again are. It’s likely to help Democratic recruiting too, as potentially strong candidates are often more willing to run in an open-seat contest than to take on an incumbent. FairVote finds the incumbency advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent.

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